OSKA general forecast 2022-2031


The OSKA research report “An overview of the state of the Estonian labour market, labour demands and resulting training demands” provides a comprehensive overview of labour needs both today and in the near future.

The labour and skills needs forecast was prepared in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply shortages, the Russo-Ukrainian War and the energy and economic crisis, which have both short- and long-term effects on the labour market. Trends such as population ageing, migration (including refugees), digitalisation and automation and the green transition have a major impact on labour market developments.

According to the forecast, jobs will mainly be created in the services sector. In the next ten years, employment in the information and communication, finance and insurance and healthcare and social work sectors is expected to increase. Employment will also increase in technical specialties.

According to the forecast, employment will decrease in the transport and storage, real estate, administrative and ancillary activities and the forestry and fishing sectors.

The forecasted labour demand for the next 10 years is higher than what the generation entering the labour market can cover. Flexible employment and learning opportunities and work-life balance must therefore be supported to facilitate increased employment in all age groups. There is a need to promote automation and digitalisation and to mobilise foreign labour where necessary.

About the study

The labour demand forecast is based on the new OSKA labour demand forecast model. Estimates of the forecast changes in occupations are based on OSKA’s sector inquiries. The sector inquiries also provide qualitative information on the causes and mitigation options of labour market supply and demand mismatches.

The OSKA forecast model is based on various registries from Statistics Estonia, migration data from the Estonian Tax and Customs Board and the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board and education data from EHIS.

Structure of the research report

  • Overview of economic and labour market trends
  • Labour demand forecast 2022-2031
  • Comparison of labour demand and supply
  • Labour demand and supply mismatches and mitigation options

Focus: occupations with the highest educational mismatches

Key findings