The study assesses the need for foreign labour until 2035. In the context of this study, foreign labour refers to individuals who are not Estonian citizens. This includes both citizens of the European Union (EU) and people coming to Estonia from outside the EU. The study is based on statistics covering EU citizens (including citizens of Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Iceland), third-country nationals residing in Estonia with a visa or residence permit (including Japan, the USA, the UK), as well as individuals residing in Estonia under international or temporary protection.
The focus of the study is on describing the temporary foreign labour force in Estonia and assessing future labour demand.
In 2023, a total of 66,400 temporary foreign workers were employed in Estonia, accounting for 8.8% of total annual employment.
According to OSKA’s general forecast, by 2035, Estonia will face an annual shortfall of approximately 1,400 top specialists and 700 skilled workers that cannot be filled by graduates of the Estonian education system. Involving foreign labour to a certain extent is inevitable.
Labour migration policy in Estonia is based on an immigration quota (0.1% of the population) and its exemptions. Estonia’s migration policy is fragmented and complex; over time, numerous exceptions have been added, making it difficult for both employers and labour migrants to follow the rules.
To better align labour migration regulation with the needs of the future labour market, it is necessary to establish clear goals and general principles for labour migration policy, including its links to other types of migration. Labour migration policy should set both short- and long-term goals and principles to reduce the complexity of the current system while keeping it flexible and responsive to needs.
